Williston Oil Production Forecast to 2040

September 15, 2024

Williston crude oil production forecast to 2040 (MBbl/d).

Williston Oil Production

Willison oil production is constrained by associated gas takeaway capacity.
Williston oil production dropped from over 1,400 MBbl/d in 2019 to around 1,200 MBbl/d in 2023.
Production is expected to increase back to the 1,400 MBbl/d level by 2025 before dropping to under 1,200 by 2040 as the basin matures.

Williston Oil Well Locations and Drilling


2020-2023	Average Lateral Length	10,000 ft
2020-2023	Average Total Well Depth	21,300 ft

Location: North Dakota and Montana
Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 18,000
Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 1039 Bbl/d
Peak Production: 2019 (~1500 MBbl/d)

Williston Number of New Wells

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The number of new wells in Williston dropped from over 2,400 in 2014 to slightly over 1000 in 2023.
Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to remain flat until 2033 and then start to decline due to maturity of the basin.
Total number of new well locations with IPs over 1800 Bbl/d is over 8,000, while well locations between 900 and 1800 Bbl/d is also over 8,000.

Williston Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)

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Well Initial Productivity (IP) dropped from over 1,200 Bbl/d in 2020 to just over 1,000 in 2023 as most sweet spots were drilled out.

Williston Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

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Incorrys is forecasting Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to remain flat at about 700 MBbl until 2030.