April 15, 2023

The chart shows a forecast of the total number of cars, light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of no more than 3.5 metric tons (LCV),  buses and trucks worldwide. Incorrys analyzed both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV).

Incorrys estimates total registered electric vehicles worldwide will grow almost 20 times from 10.7 million in 2020 to almost 200 million 2030. In 2030, total number of trucks and buses will reach 10 million, while the total number of vans (LCV) will barely reach 1 million.

Incorrys estimates that the number of buses will reach 9 million in 2030. Most electric buses and trucks will operate in urban areas making shorter trips than between cities.

In 2030, Battery electric vehicles (BEV) will represent 68% of all registered electric vehicles while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) make up the remaining 32%.

Cars are passenger light-duty vehicles, vans are light-commercial vehicles, and trucks/buses include medium and heavy-duty vehicles (Two/three-wheelers are not included).

Incorrys Electric Vehicle Forecast Model

Incorrys forecasting models includes a number of parameters in order to predict future production and sales of electric vehicles (EV). The most critical parameters are related to vehicle design and include battery cost, range, and charging time. In recent years, significant progress has been made toward battery technologies. Incorrys analyzed the trends related to improvements in battery parameters.

Incorrys also analyzed direct and indirect incentives in different jurisdictions toward EV’s of different types (Passenger cars, SUV, light trucks, buses, light commercials vehicles (LCV), and large trucks). The growth of EV production and sales is affected by charging infrastructure, including publicly available and private chargers of different types.

EV price and government incentives, together with energy cost and maintenance cost savings, contribute to total cost of ownership which are continuously declining in recent years.