April 15, 2023

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Incorrys performed analysis of cost for the battery pack of electric vehicle. The battery pack is most expensive component critical of electrical vehicle and critical to achieve a cost parity with  vehicles on internal combustion engines. Battery cost calculation is performed by analysis of public statements from manufacturers. Methodology of cost assessment between different manufacturer may be not fully compatible.

The  price for battery packs used in EVs increased to USD $151/kWh in 2022, a 7% increase over 2021 primarily due to increased prices for lithium, nickel and cobalt.

Prices are expected rise slightly in 2023 before continuing their downward trend to USD 138/kWh in 2024.

Average battery pack prices are forecast to reach USD $100/kWh (Incorry’s threshold for price parity between electric and gas-powered cars) by 2026, two years later than previously projected.

Two years ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, promised a cylindrical battery that would improve range and drive down costs – needless to say, Tesla has fallen behind on those promises. The issue being the dry-coating technique used to produce the bigger cells in Tesla’s 4680 battery is so new and unproven that they are not yet ready for mass production. This new technique is key in meeting Tesla’s vision of selling EVs for USD $25,000 – for a profit.

Incorrys now expects electric cars will reach cost parity with gasoline cars after 2026 leading to significant growth in electric car production.