China’s Coal-Fired Energy Sector in 2022
Main provinces where projects are in construction phase are Guangdong (16.6 GW or 12%, Jiangsu (10,3 GW or 8%), Gansu (10 GW or 7%)
Main approved projects in Y2022 were in Anhui (12,6 GW or 13%), Guangdong (12,5 GW or 13%, Shandong (6,7 GW or 7%)
China now accounts for two thirds (68%) of global capacity under development, up from 55% a year ago. Total amount of projects under construction – 136GW. According to Global Energy Monitor (July 2023), 98GW of new coal power projects were permitted in China, the equivalent of two large coal power plants per week (in 2021 it was only 23 GW)*. During the drafting period of the 14th Five Year Plan, power generated from renewables alone was not expected to be able to meet China’s annual growth in power demand growth from 2021-2025** – that was the main reason for development of coal further, in spite of climate change goals. Coal additions during period till Y2025 must be limited to 150GW of installed capacity. As total (construction +approved) is 235GW, the rest will be in operation after Y2025. Incorrys expects that in Y2025 total coal-fired capacity in China will reach 1175GW (plus 45 GW in comparison with Y2024) and than growth will start to decrease: from Y2025 to Y2026 plus 35GW, from Y2026 to Y2027 – plus 25GW. From Y2029 to Y2030 it is expected just plus 5 GW and after Y2030 no surpluses are expected.
Notes:
* 50 GW of coal power capacity started construction in Y2022, a more than 50% increase from 2021
** Prices for imported gas skyrocketed in 2022. The coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and some others) that have relied on gas-fired power plants to cover demand peaks are building alternatives for gas power.
References:
IEA. 2022. Global coal demand is set to rise in 2022 amid the upheaval of the energy crisis
IEA. 2024. Coal
Global Energy Monitor. April 2023
Celebi, M. Lam, L. Grove, J. Northrup, N. April 27, 2023. A Review of Coal-Fired Electricity Generation in the U.S
Enerdata. 2023. Coal and lignite production
Oreanda-news. May, 30, 2023. Global coal consumption in 2030 and 2050 will be higher than forecast
Eurostat. June, 22, 2023. Coal production and consumption up in 2022
Akhilesh Pillalamarri. January, 25, 2023. India is the World’s Most Populous Country: What it Means
Oyku Senlen, Hannah Blitzer, Leo Roberts, Chris Littlecott. April, 13, 2022. Third Generation Environmentalism Ltd (E3G). Approaching the milestone: The impending end of new coal power plant construction
S&P Global. 2023. COP28: Leaders pledge to triple renewable generation capacity by 2030
EIA. 2021. EIA projects renewables share of U.S. electricity generation mix will double by 2050
Rystad Energy. 29 November 2022. World’s largest electricity consumer: China’s power sector ripe for rapid decarbonization
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. 2023
Government of India. October, 2020. Growth of electricity sector in India from 1947-2020