November 12, 2025

In November 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to include Ksi Lisims LNG on the list of new nation-building projects. On September 11, Carney added another West Coast LNG project — Phase Two of LNG Canada in Kitimat, B.C. — to this list. Including projects on that list means that Canadian federal departments will coordinate approvals more closely, reducing bureaucratic delays. While this is good news for Ksi Lisims LNG proponents, it does not necessarily mean the project will eventually be built.

What is Ksi Lisims LNG?
Ksi Lisims LNG is designed to bring Canadian natural gas to global LNG markets, primarily in Asia. It is located on Nisg̱a’a Nation lands near Pearse Island and the Nass estuary. The gas will come primarily from the Montney Play in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. According to Incorrys’ assessment, the Montney Play holds 471 Tcf of resources with a full-cycle cost below USD $5/Mcf, and 436 Tcf of resources below USD $3/Mcf — making Montney gas among the cheapest in North America.

The target start-up date for Ksi Lisims LNG is the late 2020s. Project cost estimates vary, starting from around $10 billion. Ksi Lisims LNG will have a capacity of 12 mtpa (1.58 Bcf/d). The project is expected to be hydro-powered: a low-carbon electrically driven compression system will provide the liquefaction, with power supplied by BC Hydro. Primary pipeline planned to feed Ksi Lisims LNG is the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT). It is 900 km pipeline with capacity up to 2 Bcf/d of natural gas.

The project is owned by Western LNG (95%) and TotalEnergies (5%). The key partners in Western LNG are the Nisg̱a’a Nation (on whose land it is located) and Rockies LNG Partners. Rockies LNG Partners is a limited partnership of Canadian natural gas producers, including Advantage Energy, Birchcliff Energy, CNRL, Ovintiv, Paramount Resources, Tourmaline Oil, and others. These companies are seeking to monetize the cheap and abundant natural gas resources of Western Canada.

From 2014 to 2023, the Ksi Lisims LNG project remained in the early stages of regulatory planning. A 40-year export license was granted in 2022, and project proponents filed environmental certificate applications in 2023 while selecting FEED and low-carbon compression partners in collaboration with Siemens and Black & Veatch. In June 2025, the BC Environmental Assessment Office declared that the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) pipeline — a vital supply route to Ksi Lisims — is now “substantially started,” extending the life of its environmental certificate.

On May 19, 2025, TotalEnergies signed a 20-year, 2 Mtpa LNG sale-and-purchase agreement (SPA) and took a 5% equity stake in Western LNG, strengthening the project’s commercial viability. On September 15, 2025, the Canadian Minister of Environment and Climate Change issued the Impact Assessment Decision Statement. These developments mark a shift from planning to actionable pre-construction, supported by commercial partnerships and regulatory progress that signal growing momentum toward a late-2020s start — potentially by 2029.

Obstacles Ahead
The main obstacle for the Ksi Lisims LNG project is its potentially very high cost, primarily related to the natural gas pipeline. A similar project — the Coastal GasLink pipeline, which supplies natural gas to the LNG Canada project — experienced significant cost escalation. The original projected cost at the time of the project announcement (around 2018) was approximately C$6.2 billion. By November 2024, TC Energy estimated that the final cost would rise to C$14.5 billion. Due to the high cost of the pipeline and the potential for cost overruns at the liquefaction plant itself, the total cost of Ksi Lisims LNG could exceed C$25 billion.

The second major obstacle is the requirement to use electric drives for Ksi Lisims LNG. Incorrys does not expect the project to proceed under this condition. Based on our assessment, Ksi Lisims LNG may not be competitive with other LNG projects that do not have electric drive requirements — especially considering the 25–40-year economic lifespan of new large-scale LNG facilities. Therefore, the future of the Ksi Lisims LNG project remains highly uncertain.

References:
McKenna, Kate. “New nation-building projects list to include mines, LNG, Iqaluit hydro: sources.”, CBC News, November 2025, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/second-list-nation-building-projects-9.6975256

“Project overview.”, Ksi Lisims LNG, https://www.ksilisimslng.com/project . Accessed 5 September 2025

“Canada: TotalEnergies Signs an Agreement to Export 2 Mtpa of LNG for 20 years from the Ksi Lisims LNG Project.”, TotalEnergies, May 2025, https://totalenergies.com/news/press-releases/canada-totalenergies-signs-agreement-export-2-mtpa-lng-20-years-ksi-lisims-lng

“Pipeline project determined to be substantially started.”, Government of British Columbia, June 2025, https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2025ENV0023-000549

“Canadian regulator says Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline project has started.”, Reuters, June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canadian-regulator-says-prince-rupert-gas-transmission-pipeline-project-has-2025-06-05/

“Prince Rupert Gas Transmission.”, British Columbia Energy Regulator, August 2025, https://www.bc-er.ca/what-we-regulate/major-projects/prince-rupert-gas-transmission/

Newman, Chris. “Enbridge Scrapping Northern BC Natural Gas Pipeline as Project Backlog Swells to C$27B.”, Natural Gas Intelligence, December 2024, https://naturalgasintel.com/news/enbridge-scrapping-northern-bc-natural-gas-pipeline-as-project-backlog-swells-to-c27b/

Kulkarni, Akshay. “Ksi Lisims LNG project in northwest BC survives judicial challenge.”, CBC, September 2025, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/hereditary-chiefs-fail-in-ksi-lisims-lng-court-challenge-1.7624098

“Ksi Lisims LNG is granted a 40-year export license.”, Ksi Lisims LNG, December 2022, https://www.ksilisimslng.com/news/ksi-lisims-lng-is-granted-a-40-year-export-license

“Ksi Lisims LNG files application for Environmental Certificate.”, Ksi Lisims LNG, October 2023, https://www.ksilisimslng.com/news/ksi-lisims-lng-files-application-for-environmental-certificate

“Ksi Lisims LNG selects Siemens Energy to support design of low-carbon electrical driven compression system.”, Ksi Lisims LNG, July 2023, https://www.ksilisimslng.com/news/ksi-lisims-lng-selects-siemens-energy-to-support-design-of-low-carbon-electrical-driven-compression-system

“Black & Veatch Chosen for FEED Work on Proposed Ksi Lisims LNG Floating Natural Gas Project in Canada.”, Black & Veatch, July 2023, https://www.bv.com/news/black-and-veatch-chosen-for-feed-work-on-proposed-ksi-lisims-lng-floating