Canada's Carbon Price Impact on Natural Gas 2022-2030

July 15, 2021

Driven by LNG exports, Canadian natural gas demand is expected to increase 4.6%/year to 18 Bcf/d in 2030. Based on Federal backstop carbon pricing and OBPS Fraction for large emitters, revenues collected from the Canadian natural gas sector is expected to increase 24.6%/year to Cdn$27 Billion in 2030.

Incorrys estimates 60% will be returned to households (fuel emissions from Residential, Commercial, and Electrical sectors).
Therefore, in 2030 OBPS will create Cdn$10.8 Billion in funding to potentially help reduce emissions from large industrials or Oil Sands sectors.

The gas-fired power sector is expected to show the greatest increase with revenues increasing 64%/year on demand growth of 4.5%/year. In 2030, the oil sands will pay carbon costs of Cdn$3 Billion due to natural gas used or Cdn$2.15/Bbl. Although LNG exports are the highest growth demand sector, only a fraction of emissions are created within Canada during the liquefaction process.

Canada’s Carbon Price Impact on Natural Gas 2022-2030