June 19, 2024

Global electricity demand declined slightly in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic and has rebounded slowly into 2023. The growth is expected to accelerate going forward and will be met more by renewables, including solar. Total global generation reaches 28500 TWh in 2030 – up 24% from 2023.

China will account for a third of global electricity demand in 2030 and, combined with strong growth in other parts of Asia, this region will make up more than half of global electricity demand. Europe and North America will also grow steadily although their share of demand will decline as Asia’s expands.

Incorrys forecasts wind generation to double from 2150 TWh in 2022 to over 4500 TWh in 2030 and will represent 16% of global electric generation.

Wind Generation Methodology: Wind capacity (based on announced projects) coupled with the global 3-year average load factor. 

China will maintain its global dominance with a market share of 45%. The US will account for about 16% while Europe will represent about 12%.

Many other countries will increase generation and will become much more visible post 2030.

The next years will be challenging for Europe (and the US) as their current net-zero plans are slow in being realized and their dependence on China.

 

References

1.Ember-climate (2023, April), Wind’s growth trajectory puts it at the forefront of the clean energy transition, retrieved from  https://ember-climate.org/topics/wind/

2.IEA (2022, September, Wind Electricity, retrieved from Wind Electricity – Analysis – IEA

3.Rystadenergy (2022, November, 22), World’s largest electricity consumer: China’s power sector ripe for rapid decarbonization, retrieved from https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/world-s-largest-electricity-consumer-china-s-power-sector-ripe-for-rapid-decarbon