June 18, 2024

Generation Forecast (TWh)

Global electricity demand declined slightly in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic and has rebounded slowly into 2023. The growth is expected to accelerate going forward and will be met more by renewables, including solar. Total global generation reaches 28500 TWh in 2030 – up 24% from 2023.

China will account for a third of global electricity demand in 2030 and, combined with strong growth in other parts of Asia, this region will make up more than half of global electricity demand. Europe and North America will also grow steadily although their share of demand will decline as Asia’s expands.

Incorrys forecasts solar generation to more than triple from 1250 TWh in 2022 to 3900 TWh in 2030 and will represent 14% of global electric generation.

Solar Generation Methodology: Solar capacity (based on announced projects) coupled with the global 3-year average load factor. 

2030 Market Share

Incorrys expects China to maintain its top position in solar power generation in 2030 reaching 3200 TWh. This will see China’s market share increase to 45%.

The US 2030 market share is also expected to increase slightly to 20%, 2nd highest. India, at 8%, surpasses Japan and claims 3rd in 2030, potentially reaching 10%.

Germany and Japan could see a decrease in market share below 5% (Incorrys is forecasting just 3%).

 

References:

1.IEA, 2022, September Renewable Electricity. Renewable Electricity – Analysis – IEA

2.World Economic Forum (2023, February, 9). Renewables will be world’s top electricity source within three years, IEA data reveals. Renewables will be the world’s top electricity source within years | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

3.IEA (2021, December), Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecast to 2026. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5ae32253-7409-4f9a-a91d-1493ffb9777a/Renewables2021-Analysisandforecastto2026.pdf

4.Rystadenergy (2022, November, 30), World’s largest electricity consumer: China’s power sector ripe for rapid decarbonization. https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/world-s-largest-electricity-consumer-china-s-power-sector-ripe-for-rapid-decarbon